Hi

I guess it might be a good idea to tidy up and formalise my results a bit so here they are to date

2008-08-30 lay Karashar
2008-08-31 lay Sergheyev
2008-09-01 Lay My Mirasol
2008-09-04 back Seventh Cavalry for a place
2008-09-05 lay Stoneacre Chris
2008-09-08 lay Chelsea Girl
2008-09-10 lay Moorhouse Lad
2008-09-13 lay is Akhenaten
2008-09-13 lay Look Busy
2008-09-14 lay Brinkmanship
2008-09-17 lay Bandanaman
2008-09-18 lay Mysterious Moon
2008-09-19 lay Bounty Box
2008-09-19 lay Midday
2008-09-20 lay Eton Rifles
2008-09-20 lay Cat Junior
2008-09-21 lay Option Money
2008-09-21 lay Chrysander
2008-09-22 lay No to Trident
2008-09-23 lay Chelsea Girl but not matched at price asked
2008-09-24 lay Roman Villa
2008-09-24 Green Agenda
2008-09-24 Appraisal
2008-09-25 lay Mhilu
2008-09-25 lay Lyical Assassin
2008-09-26 Back Grasscutter for a place
2008-09-26 Lay Abou Ben
2008-09-27 Lay Surrealism
2008-09-28 Lay Leamington Lad
2008-09-29 Lay Cape Royal
2008-09-29 Lay Blue Dynasty
2008-09-30 Lay Bedizen (in running)
2008-10-01 Lay Perception
2008-10-01 Lay Installment
2008-10-02 Lay the Kyllachy Kid
2008-10-03 Lay Alfie Flits
2008-10-04 lay Cry Alot Boy (in running)
2008-10-06 LayDiamond Yas
2008-10-06 Lay Majuba

That equates to 39 selections, 30 winners and 9 losers

happy days wrote:

Hi

My tip for today is to lay Exmoor Ranger (in running) in the 15:20 at Exeter. This 6yo gelding had a good season last year winning two out of his four races. However this is a tough introduction to chasing. This competitive little event may be a race too soon to see him victorious. With a least three other horses capable of winning Exmoor Ranger is a good bet to get beaten. However the current price of around 6.0 is too large so I suggest laying "in running" at around the 4.0 mark. I feel it likely he will move up to the leaders with about 3 to jump before lack of race fitness kicks in. At this price I will happily take him on.

Hi A definite Stayed on really strongly rather than faded.

Tips 40 wins 30 Losses 10

happy days wrote:

Hi

My tip for the day is to lay Le Forezien in the 16:35 at Wincanton. This gelding is a consistent sort who always runs his races. However in this trappy little h'cap over this distance against a field that has many dangers, he represents a value lay at around 3.6. The trainer's record at the course is 0-12, his record over hurdles (past 5 yrs) is 3-66 adding weight to my confidence.

Hi
Non-runner

happy days wrote:

Hi

A difficult day for me today. I am going to take a chance with laying Astarador in the 16:05 at Carlisle. This 6yo gelding ran well last season when highly tried. The stable think quite a lot of him and no doubt have Cheltenham in mind. Today may well be the day to take him on. So far in his career he has taken a race to put him straight, ideally he prefers softer ground and today's rivals will put him to the test. I am sure he has been well schooled but was prone to mistakes over hurdles which if repeated today will be punished. At the price of around 2.5 I will split my stakes. Half at that price and half in running (he tends to be prominant in his races) at 1.8

Hi

Another loser not helped by the withdrawal of Bougoure.

Tips 41 wins 30 Losses 11

happy days wrote:

Hi

My tip for today is to lay Lyes Green in the 16:30 at Huntingdon. This gelding has some fair form but his win to run ratio is not good (2-23). He has been off the track for some time and has to face some race fit opponents today. The flat track may not suit this horse as much as the other fancied runners. With 4 out of his 5 rivals showing good form, the price of 3.75 looks value. With Lyes Green likely to need the run, I can see him fading over the final couple of fences.

Hi Saw it was well backed in the end. Nice to get back on the winning trail

Tips: 42 Wins:31 Lost: 11

happy days wrote:

Hi

The first tip today is to lay La Estrella in the 16:50 at Wetherby. This gelding has been struggling with his jumping in his chases to date with an unseated rider last time out. His overall form is modest with only one maiden hurdle victory to his name. He is up against 2 promising sorts today over a trip never tried before. I would be looking for him to make a mistake or 2 when coming under pressure near the end of the race. Unless the 2 market leaders both dissapoint I can see no positive result for this horse today. At around 5.0 this is a value lay.

The second bet is to lay Tir Gra in the 14:30 at Uttoxeter. This 8yo gelding (ex-pointer) was a surprise winner first time up but this is a far tougher affair. With some top stables represented and Tir Gra carrying a penalty I have the chances of him winning to be around the 8.0 mark so the current price of around 4.0 should be snapped up.

The third selection is to lay Diamond Harry in the 15:05 at Uttoxeter. This duel bumper winner has done nothing wrong to date but at the price (2.7) is appalling value. It is always uncertain how a horse will take to hurdles first time up and I feel this horse is going to make up into a staying horse so may get out speeded on this ground over the minimun trip at a course like Uttoxeter. This is a very competitive event with several major stables having runners and I would rate the chances of Diamond Harry winning at no better than 4.0

Hi

2 out of 3 means a profit so can't complain. Diamond Harry won in good style.

Bets: 45 Wins: 32 Losses: 12

happy days wrote:

Hi

My tip for today is to lay Union Island in the 14:10 at Nottingham. This Rock of Gibralter colt has been well backed and run ok in his three races to date. However he has a habit of hanging when under pressure, a good sign that all is not well either physically or mentally with this horse. The booking of J Spencer is no real indication of intent as he has a record of 3-14 over the last five years for Mr Ryan. Ryan course stats of 2-29 for 2yo's (past 5 yrs) also shows this is not a favoured course for the trainer. October is historically a quiet time over the past 5 seasons with a total record of 3-34 with 2yo's 1-15. Add to this the opposition today (several promising and unexposed types) then at the current price of around 2.0 Union Island is a value lay today.

I suggest splitting your stakes. Half at the current price of 2.0 and half to place in running at around the 1.6 mark. Union Island should be in the firing line until the closing stages so you should have every chance of being matched.

Hi

A winner but the price I quoted should have been 3.0 not 2.0. I will get the hang of these decimal prices eventually!

Bets: 46 Wins: 34 Losses: 12

happy days wrote:

Hi

A difficult day but my tip is to lay Popiel in the 15:55 at Redcar. There are a few things that have swayed me here. Firstly is this Saeed bin Suroor trained colt has shown himself to be a pretty average 2yo. He looks to have a touch of the "slows" to me. His runs at Windsor and Brighton when relatively unfancied (he was fav on one occasion but would have been far shorter if anywhere near decent) show no signs of any great speed or class. The choice of jockey N Callan (0-3) for the trainer and the course (1-12) for Surror's 2yo's tells me this horse is here in hope rather than expectation. For us, having such a respected trainer helps as this colt would be far larger in price than the current 1.99 on offer. The opposition may not be any great shakes but there are one or two in the race with a bit of form and plenty with trainers who know what it takes to win a race of this nature.

At the price, this is a horse well worth opposing today

Hi

A nice end to the working week

Bets: 47 Wins: 35 Losses: 12

happy days wrote:

Hi

Another day of few opportunities. However it may pay to lay Ballyfitz in the 17:10 at Cheltenham. This is a competitive race with four out of the five in with a shout. Ballyfitz has arguably the best hurdle form which includes a course and distance win. However Twiston Davies is struggling for winners at the moment and he could have an eye on the future with this horse and may not have him 100% for his chasing debut. To lower the risk I suggest backing this horse in running at 2.5. I feel he will be up there with every chance with two to jump before giving way enabling us to get matched.

Hi

With all the non runners turning Ballyfitz in to a 1.5 shot there was no bet.

happy days wrote:

Hi

Today's bet is to lay Zelloof in the 14:10 at Southwell. This Suroor trained filly seems no great shakes given her four races to date. The jockey has only a 3-33 record when riding the trainers juveniles and it looks to me as though Zelloof is there on hope and not expectation. With some reasonable opposition today I would have her as a 5.0 shot so the current 3.8 is well worth taking to small stakes (having the trainer she does is keeping her price lower than it should be). I would expect her to show up prominantly until being hard ridden and fading around a furlong out.

Hi

Got that one wrong!

Bets 48: Wins 35 Lost: 13

happy days wrote:

Hi

My tip for today is to lay Soulard in the 16:20 Plumpton. This J Spearing trained gelding has been beaten on all 5 attempts over hurdles so far and I see no reason why he should be odds on to win today. His win to run ratio of 3-17 is nothing special, the quality of today's opposition is not outstanding but it wouldn't have to be to turn over the fav. The choice of jockey is interesting as his record for Spearing over the last 5 yrs over hurdles is 0-13 and Mr Spearings record for novice hurdles over the same period is 4-104. This leads me to believe this horse will not be pushed hard today. Fences will be his game.

I cannot believe this horse is trading at odds on. Time to take advantage for little risk

Hi

Nice to get back to winning ways

Bets 49: Wins 36 Lost: 13

happy days wrote:

Hi

A difficult day but I have come up with two selections.

The first is to lay Mezenah in the 14:20 at Yarmouth. Currently trading at around 1.76, this Cape Cross filly trained by Bin Suroor is reported to be no great shakes. Her only run to date was on the soft over 7 furlongs at Leicester. Her sp shows connections were hopeful rather than confident. She ran well to come second but I feel there may not be much improvement in this filly. Now running over a mile on good going she may well be up in the firing line but fade in the closing stages. Her opponents today may not be out of the top draw but they wouldn't have to be to win this. Mezenah should be fav on public form but at the price I am happy to take her on.

The second selection is Taazur in the 14:50 at Yarmouth. This Mark Johnston trained colt has had many chances to get his head in front but has always found at least one too good. He has been slowly away over his tries at 7 furlongs but ridden more up with the pace when running over six. Neither method has prevailed and I just think It is a case that this horse is just not very good and finds it difficult to quicken when required. There are many unexposed types in the race who would not have to be out of the ordinary to finish in front of the selection today. Add in the moderate draw then Taazur looks opposable today. He is currently trading at around 3.35 which is a tad high for me so As I feel he will be ridden more up with the pace today I suggest a lay in running at 2.5

Hi

Two pleasing results

Bets 51: Wins 38 Lost: 13

happy days wrote:

Hi

My tip for today is to lay Strong Coffee in the 14:20 at Southwell. This Oliver Sherwood trained gelding has shown moderate form at best. He won a weak novice last time out when well backed but to me this horse looks slow. His main rival is the H Daly trained Hopkins. This horse looks far superior and I expect him to finish in front of Strong Coffee today. There are others in the race who are capable of winning a race of this nature so as with these types of races a surprise result is not uncommon therefore laying Strong Coffee rather than backing Hopkins is the percentage call. At around the 2.9 mark today's selection is a decent bet to get beat

Hi

Obviously all the non runners completely put paid to laying the selection so it was no bet