#1 2008-10-23 19:22:32

Big Cheese
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Golf Arbing

I am going to try some part arbing on the upcomming Golf events. My strategy is to back the top 10 players after two rounds and the top five players going in to the final round. I am sure this will be a winning strategy over time as statistically the winner of the event is almost certainly going to come out of those 2 groups.

I will start with the two main European and PGA tournaments this week and use Betfair for the odds

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#2 2008-10-24 18:38:10

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Re: Golf Arbing

Hi smiley-smile

A slight adjustment. As there are tied 9th places I have taken the top 8 only in the Euro tour event

Prices (Betfair)

14.5   Finch
2.44     Garcia
9.6    Kjeldson
13  Quiros
50     Delamontagne
42     Hedblom
18  Dyson
38     Levet
This provides a yield of just over 27%

Last edited by Big Cheese (2008-10-24 18:53:01)

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#3 2008-10-26 15:32:07

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Re: Golf Arbing

Unable to get to my pc to do the overnight top 5 or the American event. Still, lets see how this top 9 get on

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#4 2008-10-27 09:48:21

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Re: Golf Arbing

With Garcia winning it's a good start smiley-smile with a 27% return on investment. I will try and do the same again this week

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#5 2008-11-19 20:05:11

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Re: Golf Arbing

Looks good this Big Cheese.

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#6 2008-11-20 09:57:44

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Re: Golf Arbing

Hi Big Cheese ive been looking into this and i think long term you have a good system that will give long term profits as there will be at least a few big winners in the groups you take at good odds ,well done and good luck.smiley-clappingsmiley-clapping

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#7 2008-11-20 18:31:42

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Re: Golf Arbing

Hi zero

Thanks. I have not had time to cover the last couple of events but will try again this week

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#8 2008-11-21 17:05:12

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Re: Golf Arbing

Hi smiley-smile

I have arbed the top 10 at the Hong Kong Open. As there was a tie for 10th I have removed Plaphol and Lin as I feel neither will win. It does change the rules slightly but is based on what little knowledge of Golf that I have. The yield for the remainder is 29%
                                             
O Fisher  13.5
O Wilson 6.2
Oosthuizen 13.5
Sterne 18.5
Edfors 20
F Molinari 14
Montgomerie 15
Fraser  20
McIlroy 12
JM Singh 13

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#9 2008-11-24 12:59:01

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Re: Golf Arbing

Big Cheese wrote:

Hi smiley-smile

I have arbed the top 10 at the Hong Kong Open. As there was a tie for 10th I have removed Plaphol and Lin as I feel neither will win. It does change the rules slightly but is based on what little knowledge of Golf that I have. The yield for the remainder is 29%
                                             
O Fisher  13.5
O Wilson 6.2
Oosthuizen 13.5
Sterne 18.5
Edfors 20
F Molinari 14
Montgomerie 15
Fraser  20
McIlroy 12
JM Singh 13

Hi Big Cheese smiley-smile

Taking lin out made that expensive!


Happy Days

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#10 2008-11-24 18:52:51

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Re: Golf Arbing

Hi

It was a stupid thing to do smiley-surprise I have learned from that and will not be applying personal choice in future!

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#11 2008-11-28 17:07:03

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Re: Golf Arbing

Hi smiley-smile

Am trying this again with NO personal intervention (just taking the top 9 as multiple joint 10th place)


                        Odds
1      T Clark      4.9
2     Sim         12.5
2     Summers     38
4     Pampling     11.5
4     Townsend     80
4     Donaldson     42
4     St Webster 16   
4     Allenby     5.1
4     Wright       80


Return of 39%

Last edited by Big Cheese (2008-11-28 17:07:36)

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#12 2008-12-01 23:01:26

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Re: Golf Arbing

Good stuff.

It looks like it may work, Big Cheese, but it is a costly lesson to put personal likes/dislikes.

I have tried to amend my way of thinking to take into account Stats only, and also personal opinions and views. This week is a bit strange being limited fields but the stats found Pampling last week in-running, and hopefully will continue to do so in the future.

Good Luck

The Caddy

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#13 2008-12-02 18:53:08

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Re: Golf Arbing

Hi Caddy

Thanks. I am not sure of the long term profitability but will continue with it for a while

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#14 2008-12-05 18:51:43

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Re: Golf Arbing

Hi

Australian PGA (taking top 9 as there is joint 10th)
               
LYLE, Jarrod 10.5       
GOGGIN, Mathew 5.5       
SHEEHAN, Paul 25        
WILSON, Peter 80        
CURTAIN, Michael 60                   
LUTTERUS, David 46                 
PERSKE, Wayne     80    
SENIOR, Peter 30        
PAMPLING, Rod 8

Return of 53.88%

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#15 2008-12-05 18:58:36

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Re: Golf Arbing

Hi

Nippon Series JT Cup


Jeev Milkha SINGH 2.74

Toshinori MUTO 10.5
   
Katsumasa MIYAMOTO 13.5
   
David SMAIL 12
   
Ryo ISHIKAWA 10
   
Kaname YOKOO 23
   
Keiichiro FUKABORI 28
   
Hiroyuki FUJITA 26
   
Shingo KATAYAMA 12
   
Taichi TESHIMA 28

Return of 4.54 %

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#16 2008-12-07 13:04:38

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Re: Golf Arbing

Big Cheese wrote:

Hi

Australian PGA (taking top 9 as there is joint 10th)
               
LYLE, Jarrod 10.5       
GOGGIN, Mathew 5.5       
SHEEHAN, Paul 25        
WILSON, Peter 80        
CURTAIN, Michael 60                   
LUTTERUS, David 46                 
PERSKE, Wayne     80    
SENIOR, Peter 30        
PAMPLING, Rod 8

Return of 53.88%

Loser smiley-sad

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#17 2008-12-07 13:05:41

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Re: Golf Arbing

Big Cheese wrote:

Hi

Nippon Series JT Cup


Jeev Milkha SINGH 2.74

Toshinori MUTO 10.5
   
Katsumasa MIYAMOTO 13.5
   
David SMAIL 12
   
Ryo ISHIKAWA 10
   
Kaname YOKOO 23
   
Keiichiro FUKABORI 28
   
Hiroyuki FUJITA 26
   
Shingo KATAYAMA 12
   
Taichi TESHIMA 28

Return of 4.54 %

Winner smiley-smile

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#18 2008-12-12 15:45:13

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Re: Golf Arbing

Hi smiley-smile

From this week I will add that I am using  100 pts per event. I will keep 2 running totals. 1 for events with a clear top 10 and 1 with joint top 10's.

Alfred Dunhill

Top 10 (where tied 9th I used alphabetical order, this rules out Westwood)

ROCK, Robert 11       
MATTIACE, Len  11.5       
STERNE, Richard    7.8    
EDFORS, Johan 13
MORDT, Tyrone 75       
MORGAN, John E 34       
SCHWARTZEL, Charl 7.8       
HENNINGSSON, Oskar 32                  
ABERY, Warren 75        
CAYEUX, Marc 55

Yield of 59%

Last edited by Big Cheese (2008-12-12 15:56:16)

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#19 2008-12-15 15:16:42

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Re: Golf Arbing

Big Cheese wrote:

Hi smiley-smile

From this week I will add that I am using  100 pts per event. I will keep 2 running totals. 1 for events with a clear top 10 and 1 with joint top 10's.

Alfred Dunhill

Top 10 (where tied 9th I used alphabetical order, this rules out Westwood)

ROCK, Robert 11       
MATTIACE, Len  11.5       
STERNE, Richard    7.8    
EDFORS, Johan 13
MORDT, Tyrone 75       
MORGAN, John E 34       
SCHWARTZEL, Charl 7.8       
HENNINGSSON, Oskar 32                  
ABERY, Warren 75        
CAYEUX, Marc 55

Yield of 59%

Winner!

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#20 2008-12-15 18:29:14

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Re: Golf Arbing

Hi smiley-smile

Now keeping a record of profit and loss starting from previous bet (Alfred Dunhill)

1. Alfred Dunhill (top 9) Profit 59pts

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#21 2009-09-14 17:40:29

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Re: Golf Arbing

Hi smiley-smile

Time constraints have not allowed me to carry on with this recently but will try again

Top 10 as listed by Bookmakers but with Betfair odds

Austrian Open

Hansen 9.4

Green 18

Dredge 20

Brier 23

Levet 27

Dougherty 27

Cejka 28

Erlandsson 32

Lee 34

Lynn 42

A return of 22.38% before tax

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#22 2009-09-16 14:58:50

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Re: Golf Arbing

Probably the worst prices I have ever seen for some real dodgy players. All the best, but you might be better laying the lot of them! (insert cynical smiley)

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#23 2009-09-16 19:07:35

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Re: Golf Arbing

writers wrote:

Probably the worst prices I have ever seen for some real dodgy players. All the best, but you might be better laying the lot of them! (insert cynical smiley)

Thanks for the reply smiley-smile

It is an ongoing experiment so I guess only time will tell smiley-smile

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#24 2009-09-21 18:53:58

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Re: Golf Arbing

Hi smiley-smile

No good with that one!

Tournaments 1
Win 0
Losses 100pts
(Each tournament is staking 100pts)

Trying the Tour Championship next

Top 10 as listed by Bookmakers but with Betfair odds

Woods 2.3
Harrington 16
Furyk 18.5
Stricker 23
Johnson 23
Mickleson 32
OHair 28
Goosen 32
Mahan 38
Ogilvy 44

26% yield

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#25 2009-09-28 11:42:55

Big Cheese
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Re: Golf Arbing

Hi smiley-smile

Thats better

Tournaments 2
Win 1
Losses 74pts
(Each tournament is staking 100pts)

I am amending this to back the top 10 players after the first round

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