



I am going to try some part arbing on the upcomming Golf events. My strategy is to back the top 10 players after two rounds and the top five players going in to the final round. I am sure this will be a winning strategy over time as statistically the winner of the event is almost certainly going to come out of those 2 groups.
I will start with the two main European and PGA tournaments this week and use Betfair for the odds
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Hi 
A slight adjustment. As there are tied 9th places I have taken the top 8 only in the Euro tour event
Prices (Betfair)
14.5 Finch
2.44 Garcia
9.6 Kjeldson
13 Quiros
50 Delamontagne
42 Hedblom
18 Dyson
38 Levet
This provides a yield of just over 27%
Last edited by Big Cheese (2008-10-24 18:53:01)
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Unable to get to my pc to do the overnight top 5 or the American event. Still, lets see how this top 9 get on
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With Garcia winning it's a good start
with a 27% return on investment. I will try and do the same again this week
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Hi Big Cheese ive been looking into this and i think long term you have a good system that will give long term profits as there will be at least a few big winners in the groups you take at good odds ,well done and good luck.

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Hi zero
Thanks. I have not had time to cover the last couple of events but will try again this week
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Hi 
I have arbed the top 10 at the Hong Kong Open. As there was a tie for 10th I have removed Plaphol and Lin as I feel neither will win. It does change the rules slightly but is based on what little knowledge of Golf that I have. The yield for the remainder is 29%
O Fisher 13.5
O Wilson 6.2
Oosthuizen 13.5
Sterne 18.5
Edfors 20
F Molinari 14
Montgomerie 15
Fraser 20
McIlroy 12
JM Singh 13
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Big Cheese wrote:
Hi
I have arbed the top 10 at the Hong Kong Open. As there was a tie for 10th I have removed Plaphol and Lin as I feel neither will win. It does change the rules slightly but is based on what little knowledge of Golf that I have. The yield for the remainder is 29%
O Fisher 13.5
O Wilson 6.2
Oosthuizen 13.5
Sterne 18.5
Edfors 20
F Molinari 14
Montgomerie 15
Fraser 20
McIlroy 12
JM Singh 13
Hi Big Cheese 
Taking lin out made that expensive!
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Hi
It was a stupid thing to do
I have learned from that and will not be applying personal choice in future!
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Hi 
Am trying this again with NO personal intervention (just taking the top 9 as multiple joint 10th place)
Odds
1 T Clark 4.9
2 Sim 12.5
2 Summers 38
4 Pampling 11.5
4 Townsend 80
4 Donaldson 42
4 St Webster 16
4 Allenby 5.1
4 Wright 80
Return of 39%
Last edited by Big Cheese (2008-11-28 17:07:36)
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Good stuff.
It looks like it may work, Big Cheese, but it is a costly lesson to put personal likes/dislikes.
I have tried to amend my way of thinking to take into account Stats only, and also personal opinions and views. This week is a bit strange being limited fields but the stats found Pampling last week in-running, and hopefully will continue to do so in the future.
Good Luck
The Caddy
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Hi Caddy
Thanks. I am not sure of the long term profitability but will continue with it for a while
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Hi
Australian PGA (taking top 9 as there is joint 10th)
LYLE, Jarrod 10.5
GOGGIN, Mathew 5.5
SHEEHAN, Paul 25
WILSON, Peter 80
CURTAIN, Michael 60
LUTTERUS, David 46
PERSKE, Wayne 80
SENIOR, Peter 30
PAMPLING, Rod 8
Return of 53.88%
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Hi
Nippon Series JT Cup
Jeev Milkha SINGH 2.74
Toshinori MUTO 10.5
Katsumasa MIYAMOTO 13.5
David SMAIL 12
Ryo ISHIKAWA 10
Kaname YOKOO 23
Keiichiro FUKABORI 28
Hiroyuki FUJITA 26
Shingo KATAYAMA 12
Taichi TESHIMA 28
Return of 4.54 %
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Big Cheese wrote:
Hi
Australian PGA (taking top 9 as there is joint 10th)
LYLE, Jarrod 10.5
GOGGIN, Mathew 5.5
SHEEHAN, Paul 25
WILSON, Peter 80
CURTAIN, Michael 60
LUTTERUS, David 46
PERSKE, Wayne 80
SENIOR, Peter 30
PAMPLING, Rod 8
Return of 53.88%
Loser 
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Big Cheese wrote:
Hi
Nippon Series JT Cup
Jeev Milkha SINGH 2.74
Toshinori MUTO 10.5
Katsumasa MIYAMOTO 13.5
David SMAIL 12
Ryo ISHIKAWA 10
Kaname YOKOO 23
Keiichiro FUKABORI 28
Hiroyuki FUJITA 26
Shingo KATAYAMA 12
Taichi TESHIMA 28
Return of 4.54 %
Winner 
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Hi 
From this week I will add that I am using 100 pts per event. I will keep 2 running totals. 1 for events with a clear top 10 and 1 with joint top 10's.
Alfred Dunhill
Top 10 (where tied 9th I used alphabetical order, this rules out Westwood)
ROCK, Robert 11
MATTIACE, Len 11.5
STERNE, Richard 7.8
EDFORS, Johan 13
MORDT, Tyrone 75
MORGAN, John E 34
SCHWARTZEL, Charl 7.8
HENNINGSSON, Oskar 32
ABERY, Warren 75
CAYEUX, Marc 55
Yield of 59%
Last edited by Big Cheese (2008-12-12 15:56:16)
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Big Cheese wrote:
Hi
From this week I will add that I am using 100 pts per event. I will keep 2 running totals. 1 for events with a clear top 10 and 1 with joint top 10's.
Alfred Dunhill
Top 10 (where tied 9th I used alphabetical order, this rules out Westwood)
ROCK, Robert 11
MATTIACE, Len 11.5
STERNE, Richard 7.8
EDFORS, Johan 13
MORDT, Tyrone 75
MORGAN, John E 34
SCHWARTZEL, Charl 7.8
HENNINGSSON, Oskar 32
ABERY, Warren 75
CAYEUX, Marc 55
Yield of 59%
Winner!
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Hi 
Now keeping a record of profit and loss starting from previous bet (Alfred Dunhill)
1. Alfred Dunhill (top 9) Profit 59pts
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Hi 
Time constraints have not allowed me to carry on with this recently but will try again
Top 10 as listed by Bookmakers but with Betfair odds
Austrian Open
Hansen 9.4
Green 18
Dredge 20
Brier 23
Levet 27
Dougherty 27
Cejka 28
Erlandsson 32
Lee 34
Lynn 42
A return of 22.38% before tax
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writers wrote:
Probably the worst prices I have ever seen for some real dodgy players. All the best, but you might be better laying the lot of them! (insert cynical smiley)
Thanks for the reply 
It is an ongoing experiment so I guess only time will tell 
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Hi 
No good with that one!
Tournaments 1
Win 0
Losses 100pts
(Each tournament is staking 100pts)
Trying the Tour Championship next
Top 10 as listed by Bookmakers but with Betfair odds
Woods 2.3
Harrington 16
Furyk 18.5
Stricker 23
Johnson 23
Mickleson 32
OHair 28
Goosen 32
Mahan 38
Ogilvy 44
26% yield
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Hi 
Thats better
Tournaments 2
Win 1
Losses 74pts
(Each tournament is staking 100pts)
I am amending this to back the top 10 players after the first round
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